If the player switches door then their chances of winning the car increases to 2/3!! The Monty Hall Problem gets its name from the TV game show, Let's Make A Deal, hosted by Monty Hall 1. A player chooses a door at random. In particular, if the car is hidden by means of some randomization device – like tossing symmetric or asymmetric three-sided die – the dominance implies that a strategy maximizing the probability of winning the car will be among three always-switching strategies, namely it will be the strategy that initially picks the least likely door then switches no matter which door to switch is offered by the host. Address: 43 Churchgate, Wicklow, Co. Wicklow, Ireland.If you are having problems understanding the outcome, I find it helps to imagine that there are a million doors rather than 3. Monty Hall by simulation in R Posted on February 3, 2012 by bayesianbiologist in R bloggers | 0 Comments [This article was first published on bayesianbiologist » Rstats , and kindly contributed to R … Yet another insight is that your chance of winning by switching doors is directly related to your chance of choosing the winning door in the first place: if you choose the correct door on your first try, then switching loses; if you choose a wrong door on your first try, then switching wins; your chance of choosing the correct door on your first try is 1/3, and the chance of choosing a wrong door is 2/3.Dominance is a strong reason to seek for a solution among always-switching strategies, under fairly general assumptions on the environment in which the contestant is making decisions. 2?" Another insight is that switching doors is a different action than choosing between the two remaining doors at random, as the first action uses the previous information and the latter does not. Ganas el coche: Pierdes el coche: Porcentaje de éxito: % The one you choose, or the one that Monty avoided opening while he opened all 999,998 other doors?! After you choose your door (1/1,000,000 chance of hiding the car) Monty opens up 999,998 doors that hide goats to leave one door still closed. En este concurso, el concursante escoge una puerta entre tres, y su premio consiste en lo que se encuentra detrás. It seems obvious to me that the other door that Monty left un-opened has a massively higher chance of hiding the car than your original choice! Other possible behaviors than the one described can reveal different additional information, or none at all, and yield different probabilities. Now which door do you think is most likely to hide the car? Monty Hall Problem --a free graphical game and simulation to understand this probability problem.